
Conab's Agricultural Monitoring Bulletin reports rain, drought and fires affecting Brazilian crops. Drought and high temperatures hurt wheat grain filling in western and northern Paraná.
Third-crop corn harvest has started in Bahia and Sergipe, with water stress reducing yields in some areas.
Localized yield losses in Brazilian corn and wheat add modest supply pressure, though rain in Rio Grande do Sul and favorable soybean planting conditions limit the impact.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.