
Conab reports that dry weather in the Midwest and Southeast favored the harvest and quality of second-crop corn and cotton between August 1 and 24. In southern Brazil, excess rain and low sunlight raised risks to wheat, with fungal disease pressure rising in Paraná.
Good harvest conditions for Brazilian second-crop corn support adequate export availability, which is bearish for corn. Wheat disease and moisture risks in the South are a modest bullish factor for wheat.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.