
Rains are keeping soil moisture good in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, favoring second-crop corn and other crops. Instability in southern Brazil has slightly slowed harvests without causing losses so far.
Good moisture supports the Brazilian second-crop corn outlook, which is bearish for corn export prices, though southern harvest delays are a minor offset.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.