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A BASF analyst said NOAA confirmed El Nino would affect Brazil's climate into autumn 2024, with more rain in the South and drier conditions in the North and Northeast. Farmers were urged to plan variety, disease control and harvest management carefully.
El Nino-driven rainfall shifts raise the risk of uneven soybean yields across Brazil, which can support soy prices if it materializes.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.