
Conab's June Agricultural Monitoring Bulletin reports that June rains favored third-crop beans and corn in the Sealba region but hampered wheat establishment in Rio Grande do Sul. Dry weather in other areas favored second-crop cotton and corn maturation and harvest but restricted corn in reproductive stages and wheat development.
Negative vegetation index anomalies were widespread due to early corn maturation and delayed wheat sowing.
Dry stress on late corn and delayed wheat development points to reduced feed grain availability from Brazil's second crop and possible firmer corn and wheat prices for feed buyers.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.