
Conab's Agricultural Monitoring Bulletin reports that excessive October rain in Parana and Santa Catarina, over 300 mm in places, partially damaged wheat harvest and reduced grain quality. Rain favored soybean sowing in Mato Grosso and Parana but delayed it in São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul.
Quality losses in South American wheat tighten feed-grade supply, while mixed planting conditions add modest uncertainty to soybean output.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.