
Soybean harvest in Mato Grosso do Sul reached about 17.3% by mid-February, slightly ahead of the five-year average. About 1.9 million hectares, or 43% of the area, are under water stress, though recent rains stabilized crop conditions.
Drought stress across a large share of the state's area is a risk to soybean and meal output, which is mildly supportive for soybean prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, SBM moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.