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Brazilian agronomist Paulo Sentelhas reviews the 2018-2019 soybean harvest, which was hit by drought and irregular rains during the reproductive phase from December to February. Conab and Aprosoja estimate productivity losses of 5 to 30%, with Paraná the hardest hit at about 30%.
Lower Brazilian soybean output tightens export supplies of soybeans and meal, which supports soy complex prices. The losses were already known by April, so the effect is mostly a backdrop to current pricing.
revistacultivar.comApr 1, 2019After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 184 past bullish weather events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
