Brazil's soybean crop is ending poorly after dryness in the northeast and wetness in the far south, and early estimates have been trimmed. Argentina's soybean crop has been hit by extensive flooding in eastern and northern areas, with forecasts down about 8% from last year and up to 30% in the hardest-hit areas.
Lower South American soybean and meal output tightens global supply at a time when ports and movement are also disrupted. This supports soybean and meal prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.