◂ Event Timeline

Jul 25, 2018WEATHERUS

A change in the weather

Farm Progress reports NOAA's 70% probability of El Niño for the 2018-19 Northern Hemisphere winter, with the Climate Prediction Center explaining how warm tropical Pacific temperatures affect global rainfall and jet stream patterns. Drought is noted as a key impact for agriculture.

WHY IT MATTERS

Expected El Niño drought risk in major grain regions could support corn, wheat and soybean prices into the winter, though the impact depends on its strength.

AFFECTSCorn▲Soybeans▲

SOURCE
farmprogress.comMelissa HemkenJul 25, 2018

Price reaction & history

Corn▲bullishSO FAR1d +1.2%5d +3.5%20d +2.0%

After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

Oct 16, 2019Crop Weather -- After the Snow-1.2%
Apr 1, 2017Rolling the dice on weather-0.9%
Jun 27, 2022Hot and Dry Weather Tees Up a Tense July in the US Corn Belt+1.8%
Jul 31, 2020Hot, dry weather takes a toll-0.7%
Apr 25, 2024Weather patterns are shifting in Iowa and the Corn Belt+0.7%

Soybeans▲bullishSO FAR1d +0.3%5d +5.3%20d +1.9%

After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.

Oct 16, 2019Crop Weather -- After the Snow+0.0%
Apr 1, 2017Rolling the dice on weather-0.4%
Jul 31, 2020Hot, dry weather takes a toll-1.2%
May 9, 2016Weather hits the Soya harvest+2.8%
Apr 25, 2024Weather patterns are shifting in Iowa and the Corn Belt-0.9%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Corn CORN · GP ▸

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Soybeans SOY · GP ▸

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