
Early planting in Primavera do Leste and Campo Verde gave some soybean growers an advantage, but high temperatures are now hurting plant development, including on irrigated land. One producer reports dry spells of 10 to 12 days, shorter internodes and water stress, and estimates yield could be compromised if November matches October's conditions.
Input costs have risen 20% to 30%.
Heat stress during the reproductive stage could cut Brazilian soybean output, tightening export supply and supporting soybean and meal prices. Higher production costs may also reduce farmer margins and planting decisions for the next season.
After 1,085 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.