Mato Grosso recorded 186 mm of rain between September 1 and October 27, 33% below the historical average of 276 mm and the second-lowest figure in a 27-year series, behind 2024. Between September 28 and October 27, rainfall was 34% below normal.
Satellite data show 66% of the state received at least 25% less rain than average, and 22 of 23 municipalities assessed were below standard.
Mato Grosso is Brazil's top soybean producer, so widespread rainfall deficits raise the risk of yield losses that would tighten global soybean supply. Dryness that could reduce output is supportive for soybean and soybean meal prices.
After 1,085 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.