
In Jaciara, in southern Mato Grosso, irregular rainfall, high temperatures and rising production costs are hurting the 2026/27 soybean crop. A farm there planted between October 4 and 25, but uneven rain between late October and November is slowing crop development.
Farmers also report more pest pressure and concern about profitability.
Mato Grosso is Brazil's largest soybean state, so local yield losses add to export supply risk and support soybean and meal prices. Higher input costs squeezing margins may also affect farmers' planting and marketing decisions.
After 1,085 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.