
INMET's outlook for the second half of November points to uneven rainfall across Brazil. Above-average rain is expected in parts of the South, Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, while the Center-West, North and Northeast may see irregular or below-average rain.
Uneven rainfall during early soybean and corn establishment raises the risk of replanting and yield variability in Brazil, which can support soybean and corn prices.
After 1,085 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.