
Excess rain linked to El Niño has damaged crops and delayed planting in the Itapetininga region of São Paulo state. A producer in Itaberá reported 700 hectares of wheat affected, with the value per tonne falling from R$1,500 to R$800 due to moisture.
Only about 50% of the planned summer planting area has been sown, which may reduce the safrinha corn area next year.
Lower wheat quality and delayed sowing tighten local feed grain supply and could reduce safrinha corn output next season, supporting corn and wheat prices.
After 1,469 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.8%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.