
Folha reports that El Niño could delay grain planting, reduce harvests and disrupt livestock farming in Brazil in the second half of 2026. NOAA puts the probability of a very strong El Niño at 81%.
Effects will vary by region, with drought risk in the North and Northeast and flooding risk in the South.
Delayed soybean planting in the Central-West could narrow the safrinha corn window and reduce yields, supporting soybean and corn prices. Drought risk in the north and northeast could also raise feed costs for livestock producers.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.