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WTI crude fell roughly 15% after a two-week US-Iran ceasefire was announced, conditional on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The article says the drop reflected a rapid unwinding of the risk premium built into front-month contracts and physical differentials.
Crude remains well above pre-war levels, and flows have yet to be confirmed through actual cargo movement.
Lower crude reduces energy and freight costs and weakens the biofuel pull on soybean oil. Because prices remain above pre-war levels and physical supply is unconfirmed, renewed disruption could quickly reverse the decline.
equiti.comYazeed Abu SummaqaApr 8, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 28 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median -2.7% over 5 sessions (21% higher; middle half -8.3% to -0.7%), and -2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Explains the roughly 15% WTI drop as an unwinding of the war risk premium after the ceasefire, conditional on reopening Hormuz.
