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Oil futures plunged after a cease-fire between the US and Iran raised hopes for restored supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Market participants said a meaningful increase in shipping flows would help reduce oil prices.
Expectations of restored Gulf shipments reduce the supply risk premium in crude, which lowers energy and transport costs that influence feed prices.
wsj.comApr 7, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Futures plunged on hopes that the ceasefire would restore Strait of Hormuz supply, the main mechanism behind the price drop.
Futures plunged on hopes of restored Hormuz supply, a sentiment and supply-expectation shift.
