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Maharashtra has 85% of its talukas in drought, Bihar farmers face an uncertain rabi season, and Rajasthan irrigation is failing as a strengthening El Niño cuts water supply. Economists say India's grain stocks can absorb one bad year but a second El Niño could drain the buffer within two to three years.
Drought-hit rabi wheat and other winter crops could fall 10-15% below normal, tightening Indian grain supply and raising import and export-restriction risk that would lift global wheat, rice and feed grain prices.
ndtvprofit.comAbhishek JhaNov 15, 2026After 1,076 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
