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Reuters columnist Karen Braun says forecasts are increasingly pointing to an El Niño, with timing most pressing in the Southern Hemisphere, where wheat planting begins next month. Australia, usually dry during El Niño, is coming off three bumper wheat harvests, while Argentina is typically wet during the event.
An El Niño developing during Southern Hemisphere planting could cut Australian wheat output and shift South American crop conditions, supporting wheat and feed grain prices.
reuters.comKaren BraunApr 14, 2023After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
