How long will the El Nino last? Latest official forecasts

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Sep 17, 2019ABARES slashes grain production forecasts | The Land | NSW+2.4%
• Jul 28, 2022How big will Western Australia's wheat crop be? - Grain Price News+4.6%
• Sep 11, 2018Drought bites in the east as ABARES forecasts 12pc cut to grain production - ABC News-7.4%
• Sep 6, 2023From rice to palm oil, crop output forecasts for Asia-Pacific lower as El Nino strengthens | The Straits Times+2.1%
• Oct 10, 2023COCERAL forecasts the grain harvest in the EU-27 + UK at 289.8 mln tons.+0.2%

After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jun 27, 2023Palm oil will rise in price in the second half of the year – forecast+12.1%
• Sep 6, 2023From rice to palm oil, crop output forecasts for Asia-Pacific lower as El Nino strengthens | The Straits Times-4.2%
• Aug 30, 2023From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens+0.6%
• Jul 7, 2023Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024-0.1%
• Sep 1, 2023Global El Niño forecasts predict a Very Strong event for 2023/24-4.5%

After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.

• Sep 6, 2023From rice to palm oil, crop output forecasts for Asia-Pacific lower as El Nino strengthens | The Straits Times-6.2%
• Feb 19, 2024The El Niño weather pattern shapes 2024 commodity price forecast-0.2%
• Aug 30, 2023From rice to palm oil, Asian crops output forecast lower as El Nino strengthens+1.2%
• Jul 17, 2018Cloudy outlook: Rice-growing states face big rain deficit - India News | The Financial Express-0.5%
• Jul 7, 2023Malaysia forecasts peak of El Niño to hit in early 2024+1.4%