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Strong export sales from October 2022 to January 2023 raised importer concerns that the 2023/24 wheat harvest in major exporters could shrink. Ukraine's 2023 wheat output is expected near 15-16 million tonnes, the lowest since 2007, and Russia's crop is forecast at 85-86 million tonnes.
Forecast declines in Ukraine and Russia's crops point to tighter supplies after the current season, supporting wheat prices and feed costs.
graintrade.com.uaFeb 14, 2023After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
