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Oklahoma State University analysis notes Hard Red Winter wheat harvest contracts were forward-priced near $6.07 a bushel in mid-April 2021, down from $6.51 in February. The article flags freezing weather on April 19 to 21 with unknown yield impact and a forecast of above-average temperatures and below-average rain.
U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected at 852 million bushels.
Dry, warm forecasts for the HRW belt threaten yields and could keep harvest-delivery prices firm. Tight projected ending stocks support wheat values for feed use.
farmprogress.comKim AndersonApr 26, 2021After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Freezing temperatures on April 19-21 with unknown yield impact, plus a hot and dry forecast, raised HRW crop-risk concerns in the window of the rally, a plausible supply-side driver, though the article notes forward prices were lower than in February.
