
Australia's winter crop is forecast to fall 39% to 36.3 Mt after dry conditions, with some NSW crops grazed or sprayed out. NSW winter crop output is tipped to drop 43% to about 9.5 Mt, and many crops in very poor condition may not be harvested.
Heavy losses in NSW, Queensland and Western Australia reduce Australian feed grain and wheat exports, supporting prices in import markets.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.