Iran war lifts wheat, but will the rally hold through harvest?

After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.

• May 5, 2026Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price | The Western Producer-1.3%
• Mar 31, 2026War with Iran and dry weather in the US are pushing up US wheat prices, but they are limited by significant supply-3.0%
• Jun 30, 2017Wheat futures rally amid worsening drought in the Northern Plains+9.6%
• May 30, 2024Russian Frosts Feed the Wheat Bulls | CZ app-6.0%
• Apr 29, 2024The Latest News About the U.S. Wheat Crop+2.1%

After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Sep 11, 2017Big dry puts scythe through wheat harvest+4.2%
• May 5, 2026Drought, frost provide lift for U.S. hard red wheat price | The Western Producer+1.8%
• Mar 31, 2026War with Iran and dry weather in the US are pushing up US wheat prices, but they are limited by significant supply-0.7%
• Aug 30, 2021EU harvest adds to the global wheat dilemma - Grain Central+0.2%
• Jun 30, 2017Wheat futures rally amid worsening drought in the Northern Plains+1.3%