
U.S. wheat futures rallied for seven days while corn and soybeans declined, as dry conditions in the Central and Southern Plains and in southern Russia and western Canada prompted short covering. Farmers sold old-crop HRW and HRS wheat into the rally, and storms on April 26 to 28 brought rain to some producing areas but missed much of the western Plains.
Dryness in HRW regions and farmer selling into strength are the two forces setting near-term wheat prices, with rain relief limiting the rally.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.