
U.S. wheat futures surged on July 25, with Chicago SRW jumping 6.2%, its biggest daily gain since 2015, nearly hitting its trading limit. Strategie Grains cut its EU soft wheat estimate below 130 million tonnes, the lowest since 2012, and SovEcon put Russian yields near a three-year low.
Below-average hard red spring wheat yields were also found on a crop tour in the Dakotas.
Multiple crop shortfalls across the EU, Russia and North America tighten global wheat supplies and lift feed grain values, raising feed costs for buyers. Corn also rose to a three-week high in sympathy.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.