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An Oklahoma State University analyst notes that forward contracts for June/July 2021 delivery of wheat were around $6 a bushel in mid-March, down from $6.51 in February but well above $4.25 a year earlier. Possible upside drivers include lower Plains production, reduced Russia/Ukraine crops, and weaker world output.
Freeze damage and the spring weather outlook for the hard red winter crop are being watched.
Harvest-delivery price expectations near $6 reflect firm HRW supply concerns that keep wheat costs elevated for feed users. A weather-driven crop cut would support prices, while a benign season would keep pressure on values.
farmprogress.comKim AndersonMar 18, 2021After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
