
Wheat quotations recovered after falling to their lowest since 2021, supported by speculative buying and importer purchases. ABARES forecasts Australian 2023/24 wheat output down 34% to 26.2 million tonnes on El Niño-related dryness, while Russian inspectors have halted Black Sea grain corridor inspections since May 31.
Lower Australian output and Black Sea logistics risk tighten wheat export supplies and support prices. Feed buyers may see wheat as a firmer alternative to corn in coming months.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.