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Drought across the southern and central US Plains, driven by La Niña, has hit Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, which produce most of the national wheat crop. Kansas HRW crop ratings fell sharply in the latest USDA reports.
Analysts expect partial recovery with spring rain but warn yields may fall below average.
Lower expected US HRW yields support Kansas City wheat futures and global wheat values, including Australian prices. The outcome depends on spring rainfall.
stockandland.com.auLloyd George, Ag ScientiaFeb 6, 2018After 322 past bullish weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.5% to +3.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
