Corn, soybeans and wheat bounce ahead of USDA quarterly grain stocks report

Corn, soybean and wheat futures each traded higher in overnight trade on 30 September 2026, recovering from recent lows ahead of key U.S. Department of Agriculture reports due later in the session, according to Pro Farmer's Ahead of the Open column authored by Lane Akre.

Pro Farmer's opening calls placed December corn 2 to 4 cents higher, November soybeans 7 to 9 cents higher, and December soft red winter wheat 5 to 8 cents higher. The report noted that "prices are off recent lows ahead of today's reports from USDA, which are known for giving surprises," and that front-month crude oil futures were modestly higher while the U.S. dollar index was down around 260 points on the morning.

USDA daily soybean export sale

USDA reported a daily export sale of 105,000 metric tonnes of soybeans for the 2026–27 marketing year destined for unknown buyers, a figure that added to the supportive tone in soybean overnight trade.

Quarterly Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports

USDA's quarterly Grain Stocks report, scheduled for release at 11 a.m. Central Time, was set to include final stock figures for the 2025–26 marketing year for corn and soybeans, as well as first-quarter wheat use data. USDA was also due to publish its Annual Small Grains report covering 2026–27 wheat, oat, barley and rye production.

According to Pro Farmer, "the trade sees corn stocks coming in modestly below USDA's September WASDE figure after use remained strong going into the final month of the marketing year." Akre noted that the key would be how the Feed & Residual figure stacks up, with USDA carrying "Feed & Residual at a record 6.35 billion bushels for the marketing year." Analysts pegged 2025 corn production at 17.003 billion bushels, a modest downward revision from USDA's latest figure of 17.021 billion bushels, with the production drop cited as the driver of the analysts' lower ending-stocks estimate.

PCE inflation data

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in August, following a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in July and coming in slightly below the 0.4% expectation, the column reported. The core PCE price index rose 0.2% month-over-month, also below the 0.3% consensus forecast. Year-on-year, PCE inflation held at 3.4% while core PCE — described as the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — remained at 3.0%.

Weather: heavy rain and flooding risk

The National Weather Service forecast tropical moisture streaming northward from the Gulf of Mexico into the southern Plains, central Rockies and upper Midwest, with widespread rainfall of 2–3 inches and locally higher totals expected through Thursday, with the heaviest rain across southern Iowa and the southern Plains. The column noted that "considerable flash flooding is possible in some areas, especially across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa today," with flooding impacts also possible across central Texas and southern Oklahoma. A cold front was forecast to move into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes region on Tuesday (30 September) and Thursday.

Livestock

Live and feeder cattle futures were called to open with a mostly firmer tone on corrective strength, though Pro Farmer noted futures continue to trend lower on the daily bar chart. Choice beef rose $2.18 to $382.66 in the prior session, "supported by shorter supplies." Lean hog futures were also called choppy to higher; the CME lean hog index was reported down 27 cents to $80.94 as of 28 September, while pork cutout fell 3 cents to $87.77 on Tuesday, led by losses in picnics and loins, though bellies jumped $6.73.