Drone attacks on merchant ships in the Black Sea this week, including strikes that sank at least one vessel off Bulgaria and Romania, have disrupted key grain export corridors and pushed Euronext front-month corn above €300/t for the first time, with wheat futures also firming. The incidents compound an already tight European grain balance marked by sharply reduced French corn output and historically low projected ending stocks for 2026/27.
The European Commission has told Ukraine there are no plans to renegotiate its agricultural export quotas, rejecting Kyiv's request for expanded bioethanol access even as Russian strikes continue to damage Ukrainian infrastructure and constrain its exports.
A sharply larger 2026 Ukrainian sunflower crop, combined with war-damaged crushing capacity and elevated logistics costs, is pushing domestic seed purchase prices and sunflower oil values lower as the harvest accelerates into early October.
Argentina's 2026/27 wheat output is forecast to fall sharply from the previous season's record, while war-related disruptions continue to constrain Black Sea exports. Together, the two developments are tightening global high-quality wheat availability and pushing Chicago futures to a multi-year high, raising import costs for buyers in North Africa, the Middle East and Asia.
German feed corn prices remain steady at 0.295 EUR/kg EXW Drentwede amid a drought-reduced domestic harvest, while Ukrainian export corn at Odesa has softened to 0.157–0.159 EUR/kg on CPT and FOB terms, widening the spread between the two origins and keeping EU feed buyers well supplied from Black Sea sources despite ongoing logistics risks.
International corn markets are navigating a tug-of-war between a projected record 66 million tonne Argentine maize harvest for 2026/27 and near-term European Union supply tightness driven by Ukrainian logistics bottlenecks. CBOT futures softened on profit-taking ahead of a U.S.–China summit, while Euronext corn held firm on constrained Black Sea inflows and elevated EU import demand.
Grain futures rose overnight on 21 September 2026 as China's state-owned firms purchased at least 260,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans days before a presidential summit in Washington, while U.S. and Chinese officials began preparatory trade talks in New York. Soybean meal, corn and wheat futures all gained, though progress on China's broader $17 billion annual farm-goods commitment remains limited.
CBOT soybean futures fell for the week ending 18 September 2026, weighed down by the onset of U.S. harvest and softness in vegetable oil markets, while firm soymeal prices, robust Chinese export demand, and harvest-delaying Midwest rains capped the downside. Regional FOB prices showed a mixed picture, with Ukrainian standard soybeans easing and GMO-free values edging higher.
