Soybean prices are holding broadly steady, supported by strong Asian crushing margins and firm Chinese feed demand, even as Ukrainian FOB values ease and CBOT futures consolidate ahead of the US harvest. Wilmar International's H1 2026 results point to a meaningful uplift in crushing volumes and processing profits, while Brazilian planting begins under El Niño-influenced conditions.
Global sunflower seed output is projected to reach around 62.3 million tonnes in 2026/27, reinforcing an oilseed surplus, while Chinese confection and bakery-grade kernels command firm premiums. Black Sea logistics disruptions and export taxes continue to add volatility to trade flows, with China's role as an alternative supplier seen as a potential source of growing pricing power.
Cumulative global fishmeal production fell 49% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2026, with fish oil output down 30%, driven by shortfalls in South America and weaker catches in Africa and Northern Europe. IFFO says Asian producers may partially offset the decline in Q4, but demand headwinds in China's aquaculture and pig sectors are weighing on recovery prospects.
Feed-grade triticale prices in north-west Germany remained stable at 0.225 EUR/kg EXW Drentwede as of 17 September 2026, supported by firm EU feed grain sentiment, steady livestock demand, and tight coarse grain availability, according to CMB News.
German feed rye EXW prices have firmed modestly in northern regions, while Ukrainian rye offered FOB Odesa has ticked up slightly, as ample EU grain supply and persistent Black Sea risk premia shape a cautious but balanced rye market heading into late September 2026.
CBOT soybean futures fell for the week ending 18 September 2026, weighed down by the onset of U.S. harvest and softness in vegetable oil markets, while firm soymeal prices, robust Chinese export demand, and harvest-delaying Midwest rains capped the downside. Regional FOB prices showed a mixed picture, with Ukrainian standard soybeans easing and GMO-free values edging higher.
Ukrainian soybean prices at Odesa are softening modestly as alternative Black Sea export routes inch toward greater capacity, now handling around 40% of normal agricultural volumes, while seasonal harvest pressure adds fresh supply into a still-constrained logistics system.
Strong soybean meal exports from Argentina — close to 3 million tonnes in August 2026 — driven by sustained buying from the EU, Vietnam, Türkiye and Indonesia, are keeping Argentine crushing margins attractive and supporting global soybean demand. FOB soybean prices in Ukraine, the US and China remained broadly flat in euro terms in mid-September, while emerging weather risks in Brazil's Mato Grosso introduce potential upside price risk later in the 2026/27 season.
A rapidly intensifying El Niño is tightening water levels at the Panama Canal and prompting precautionary draft restrictions, according to an analysis by agribusiness consultant Alê Delara published by CZ App on 17 September 2026. The weather event could raise US Gulf-to-Asia shipping costs, eroding US soybean and corn competitiveness and redirecting Asian demand toward Brazil — but the same climate risks that could lift Brazilian export premiums also threaten its domestic harvest and push up farm input costs.