India's 2026 southwest monsoon has fallen roughly 15% below normal, reducing kharif maize sowings by around 2.2% and raising domestic supply concerns. Meanwhile, Ukrainian and EU corn prices have eased, keeping global feed grain markets broadly soft despite the weather-driven uncertainty in South Asia.
China's state grain reserve operator Sinograin has resumed large-scale soybean auctions, including a tranche of around 543,000 tonnes of 2023–2025 crop beans, in a move analysts say is designed to rotate aging stocks and free silo capacity ahead of potential fresh US arrivals. With China estimated to be roughly halfway toward a 25 MMT US soybean purchase commitment, market participants are closely watching upcoming high-level US–China talks for any signal on tariff relief, which could quickly accelerate buying and tighten US export capacity.
Soybean prices are holding broadly steady, supported by strong Asian crushing margins and firm Chinese feed demand, even as Ukrainian FOB values ease and CBOT futures consolidate ahead of the US harvest. Wilmar International's H1 2026 results point to a meaningful uplift in crushing volumes and processing profits, while Brazilian planting begins under El Niño-influenced conditions.
Argentina's bumper 2025/26 corn harvest of roughly 71.7 million tonnes is driving record export volumes to North Africa, displacing Ukrainian and EU supplies constrained by Black Sea disruptions and drought. Morocco, Egypt, and Algeria have all sharply increased purchases from Argentina in the first seven months of 2026, while Brazil's expanding ethanol sector is further tightening global export availability.
German feed rye EXW prices have firmed modestly in northern regions, while Ukrainian rye offered FOB Odesa has ticked up slightly, as ample EU grain supply and persistent Black Sea risk premia shape a cautious but balanced rye market heading into late September 2026.
Ukrainian soybean prices at Odesa are softening modestly as alternative Black Sea export routes inch toward greater capacity, now handling around 40% of normal agricultural volumes, while seasonal harvest pressure adds fresh supply into a still-constrained logistics system.