Soybeans, Corn, Hogs: USDA Stocks Cut, Dollar High
· Weekly review · 16:22 · AI-generated voice presenting Feedsoft research
USDA tightened both soybean and corn stocks, but only soybeans and meal rallied: visible export demand backed soy, while lagging corn sales and a one-year-high dollar held corn back. Hogs surged off a record fund short.
Stories in this episode
- USDA WASDE report
- Soybeans rise up to 16 cents in the US after export announcements
- Hawkish Fed Repricing Punishes Non-Yielders: Gold and Bitcoin Slide as Dollar Surges to 2026 High
- November 14 | Oil: IEA sees a fourth-quarter surplus as Brent battles around $96
- Corn Rose Up to 3 Cents in the United States on Higher Export Sales
- Gold Plummets to 13-Month Lows as Robust US Inflation Data Bolsters Federal Reserve's Hawkish Stance, Driving Dollar Strength and Yield Surges
- Export demand sustains Argentine corn prices · Kernel News
- China’s October Soybean Imports Sink to Lowest Since 2023
- Soybeans Went From $13.30 to $12.32 While Washington and Beijing Made Peace
- China, US discuss tariffs, farm trade ahead of Xi-Trump meeting
- Sow Herd Down 13%, Hog Cycle Inflection Point Arrives?
- We beat screwworm once. Here's how we're trying to do it again
- Senegal and West Africa Face Potential Indian Rice Export Restrictions
- Asian rice prices rise across the board, while US soybeans reach a record high.
- Ethanol mix: OMCs triple damaged grain allocation
Transcript
Cold open · 0:00
On Tuesday, USDA told the market there would be fewer soybeans and less corn left in the bin than traders had pencilled in. Soybeans answered, rising 3.7% over the week. Corn mostly shrugged, managing just 1.0%. Same bullish report, opposite moods, and the gap between them is today's main story. Then there's a market few people were talking about. Lean hogs jumped 11.5% on Friday alone. Yes, in a single session, and we'll get to who was standing on the wrong side of it. Markets are closed today, so everything you'll hear is Friday's settles and last week's moves.
Intro · 0:44
Hello, and welcome to Feedsoft Market Signals, your daily read on agricultural and commodity markets, brought to you by Feedsoft dot A-I. I'm your AI host, and it's Saturday, November fourteenth. Let's look back at the week in markets.
The week in markets · 1:06
Here's the week at a glance, before we dig into why it played out the way it did. The soy complex led after USDA's stocks cut. Soybeans and soybean meal both climbed, with fresh export sales giving them a push on Friday. Meal is the protein line in most rations, so its direction lands on feed bills quickly. Corn barely moved, even with the same bullish surprise in hand. Meanwhile the dollar index finished the week at its highest in a year. A strong dollar makes US grain harder to sell abroad. Hogs surged, starting from a deeply crowded fund short. Cattle climbed too, with live and feeder contracts both higher on the week. Crude eased on surplus talk, though it stays far above last year's levels. And poultry feed got cheaper, with our global template rations lower over the past month. For poultry feeders, that could be the most welcome line of the week. Our last Signal asked whether the corn export pace would catch up. The answer isn't in yet. In the week to early November, commitments stood at 33% of USDA's forecast, against a usual 44% by this point. Since then, there's only a flash sale to Mexico on the record, so Thursday's report is the next real read.
The week's story: USDA tightens the books, and only soy listens · 2:23
Tuesday's USDA supply and demand report was the hinge of the week. The number everyone watches in it is ending stocks: what's left in the bin when the season closes. Smaller leftovers mean a tighter market, and usually firmer prices. But prices going into a report already reflect what analysts expect. So it's the miss against the trade guess, not the headline figure, that tends to move markets. This time the misses were clear. Analysts expected more US soybeans left at season's end than USDA found. Corn ending stocks also came in well under the trade guess. The one bearish wrinkle was a lower price projection for soybean oil. On paper, that likely reads as a bullish report for both crops. Soybeans took the hint, and meal followed. Soybeans settled on Friday at $12.33/bu. Friday added fuel, as USDA reported private sales to China, Vietnam and unknown destinations, all for the new crop. Soybean futures rose on Friday after those sales were announced. Meal moving with beans matters directly to anyone mixing hog or poultry rations. Corn, on the other hand, barely moved. That's despite a Friday flash sale to Mexico, corn's main buyer. Corn futures did tick up on that sale, but only by a few cents. So if both balance sheets tightened, why did only soybeans really respond? The difference is demand you can actually see. Soybean export commitments are at 67% of USDA's forecast, comfortably ahead of the usual pace for this point. Corn is the reverse, well behind its usual share, as we heard a moment ago. Think of the balance sheet as a promise, and export sales as the delivery. A forecast assumes buyers will turn up over the season. Sales on the books show whether they actually have. Traders seem willing to pay for delivery in soybeans, and to wait for it in corn. And the currency isn't helping corn's case. The dollar index rose 1.1% last week. Reports say markets priced a more hawkish Federal Reserve after warnings that larger rate hikes might be needed. The same report notes markets now price more tightening than Fed officials have endorsed. Treasury yields rose on hot inflation data, and gold slid to its lowest in more than a year. How does that reach a corn bin in the Midwest? A buyer paying in pesos, yen or won needs more of their own currency for every dollar bushel. So a stronger dollar makes US grain dearer abroad, even when the futures price stands still. For corn, already behind on sales, that's likely an extra headwind. Importers also have alternatives. Argentine corn is quoted at a discount to US Gulf and Brazilian offers for early next year. That gap could pull buyers toward Argentine origin once its harvest arrives. Now the harder question: is the soybean rally on solid ground? There are signs it could be thinner than it looks. China's October soybean imports sank to a multi-year low for the month. Reports link that to full crushing-plant inventories and poor crush margins in China. The US-China tariff-cut package is still unfinalised ahead of the leaders' meeting at APEC. The new trade council met on Friday, but China's Commerce Ministry didn't say whether anything was agreed. And futures remain below their mid-September levels, with Brazil's record harvest weighing. The peace headlines, in short, haven't yet turned into enforceable purchase commitments. Positioning raises another caution flag. As of early November, funds were long soybean meal at the 91st percentile of their history. A crowded long like that could turn into selling quickly if demand disappoints. There's a meal-specific wrinkle too. Crushing a bushel of soybeans yields mostly meal, with a smaller share of oil. With USDA trimming its soybean oil price view, crushers could lean harder on meal for their margin. So what should a feed buyer take from all this? Tighter US stocks likely put a floor under meal and corn costs. But where prices go from here could hinge on whether export demand turns up in the data. A tight balance sheet only bites when buyers show up to claim the bushels.
The moves that mattered · 6:53
Now to the surprise of the week: lean hogs. Hogs jumped on Friday and finished the week up 14.9%. Yet they're still down 21% from a year ago, and sit near the bottom of their range for the past year. So a big bounce, but from a low floor. What lit the fuse? There's no obvious US news story behind it in our data. As of early November, managed money held the most bearish hog positioning on record. When a crowd that short starts losing money, it has to buy contracts back. That buying can feed on itself, which is what traders call a short squeeze. Friday's jump likely had a good dose of that in it. China's shrinking sow herd is a longer-run demand story, not the explanation for Friday. Its breeding herd fell below the official baseline for the first time since capacity controls began. October piglet numbers there also turned lower than a year earlier. Hogs take about six months to reach market weight, so any supply gap there is a story for next year. Cattle joined in, with live cattle up 5.1% and feeders up 4.1% on the week. Feeders were flat on Friday itself, so the gains came earlier in the week. Screwworm remains a background risk, though the latest coverage recaps the June outbreak rather than breaking news. Oats were quietly busy, up 12.6% on the week and up 4 sessions in a row. Oats trade thinly, so big percentage moves come easier there than in corn. Wheat firmed on Friday too, with hard red winter up 2.4% on the session. Over the whole week, though, both wheat contracts gained only modestly. Rough rice settled at its highest in a year, and it's up 81% from a year ago. Talk of Indian curbs on broken rice exports, plus firmer Asian quotes, could be adding to that strength. Thai and Vietnamese export offers rose, with demand from African buyers, the Philippines and Indonesia. India hasn't announced a decision, so for now this is risk, not policy. Broken rice is a feed and ethanol input, and West African importers like Senegal lean heavily on Indian supply. India is also sharply raising the damaged grain and maize allocated to its ethanol distilleries. That could tighten local feed-grain supplies there, though allocations aren't firm purchases. Milk futures fell 2.3% last week but remain near the top of their range for the past year. RaboResearch forecasts milk output across the big exporting regions will shrink at the end of this year. It also notes weak EU farmgate prices are curbing herd expansion there. That could cushion further dips in dairy prices. Eggs rose 5.7% in our latest daily data, though they're still far below last year's levels. Poultry feed costs kept easing, with our global template broiler grower ration down 5.5% over roughly a month. Layer rations followed a similar path. Cheaper rations and a firmer egg price could give layer margins some breathing room. Not every ingredient is cheap, mind you. Canola meal is up 33% from a year ago in our weekly benchmark. So formulators swapping proteins are working with a pricier menu than last autumn. Brent fell 2.3% on the week but is still up 52% from a year ago. Diesel, the fuel farms actually burn, is up 75% from a year ago. On the river, barge freight from St. Louis eased on the week in our data. So relief on fuel and freight is real, but it could prove partial. Livestock stole the week, and in hogs at least, positioning likely said more than the news.
Feedsoft · 10:47
Market Signals is brought to you by Feedsoft dot A-I. Every USDA report on one calendar, with how much prices have typically moved on release day. It's at feedsoft dot A-I slash calendar.
Bull case, bear case: soybeans, then crude; trade abroad · 11:02
Soybeans and crude are where the argument is loudest right now, so let's lay out both sides. The bull case for soybeans starts with USDA's tight stocks number. Add Friday's new-crop sales to China and Vietnam, and commitments running ahead of the usual pace. China appearing on the sales list at all is worth noting, given how quiet its buying has been. The bear case is everything we covered earlier: weak Chinese imports, Brazil's record crop, an unfinished tariff deal. Chinese imports are also running slightly behind last year so far this calendar year. Then add positioning: funds are already long soybeans, at the 79th percentile of their history. That could leave little fresh buying power unless demand surprises. The tiebreaker is hard demand evidence, week by week. For crude, the bull case is risk. BIMCO calls the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz the largest uncertainty for dry bulk shipping. Attacks on ships and ports in the Black Sea add to that risk. And tanker attacks near Hormuz have continued. The bear case is barrels: Saudi Arabia pumped 10.5 million barrels in October. Output climbed in Iraq and Kuwait as well, while the Emirates now pump without quota limits. The IEA sees the market moving into surplus late this year as Gulf exports recover. Brent settled at $96.08/bbl on Friday. For now, the barrels are winning: crude fell on the week even with tankers under threat. Why does that reach a feed bill? Energy sits inside freight, drying and fertilizer costs. Urea, for one, is near the bottom of its range for the past year. BIMCO also expects dry bulk fleet growth to outpace demand later on. That could eventually ease ocean freight, if the shipping lanes calm down. Weather adds another wild card. NOAA says El Niño is strengthening and could become the strongest on its modern record. Strong El Niños tend to bring drought to Southeast Asia and cut Peruvian anchovy catches, which feed fishmeal supply. That could put palm oil and fishmeal on watch lists over the winter. Eastern Australia is already dry, with RaboResearch flagging weaker yields and squeezed crop margins. Further afield, Ukraine's export outlook swings widely on whether Black Sea ports operate. Rail has spare capacity, but it needs more wagons, faster turnaround and fewer border delays. That uncertainty could support wheat and corn prices. Argentina, meanwhile, shipped a record volume of grains and byproducts from January to October. Corn and wheat led the way on an extraordinary harvest. That likely means stiffer competition for US corn and wheat in key import markets. In Egypt, the Cairo poultry division says a weaker currency and war-related shipping insurance are lifting feed import costs. Egypt imports most of its soymeal, so those costs land straight on poultry margins. Feed prices there vary widely between companies, and the division warns some producers could exit. That points to the strong dollar biting importers as much as US exporters. Trade friction is rerouting dairy proteins too. Canada put a steep retaliatory tariff on US whey, its main supply source. Canadian protein makers are now looking to Europe and New Zealand instead. That could keep the whey complex firm while trade flows rearrange. Soybeans are a demand argument; crude is barrels against risk.
The Signal of the week · 14:43
Here's what to watch: how many hog shorts are still left standing? As of early November, funds were net short 59,072 contracts, the most bearish positioning on record. That snapshot was taken before last week's 14.9% surge. The next Commitments of Traders report, out on Friday at 14:30 CT, will show how much of that short has been covered. If the short shrank sharply, the rally was likely mostly covering and could lack follow-through. If it's still near record, the fuel for another squeeze could still be there. That difference matters for producers deciding when to hedge, and for feed buyers reading livestock demand. A rally built on covering tends to need real demand to carry it further.
Next week in brief · 15:34
The release that matters most is USDA Export Sales on Thursday at 07:30 CT. It's the test of whether Chinese soybean buying and the corn pace finally pick up. Tomorrow's Week Ahead episode walks through the rest of the calendar.
Outro · 15:54
And that's Market Signals for Saturday, November fourteenth. Thanks for listening. Prices, charts and today's transcript are at feedsoft dot A-I slash podcast. This is market information, not investment advice. I'll be back tomorrow with the week ahead. Until then, take care.
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