
Saudi Arabia pumped 10.5 million barrels a day in October, a level reached only once since 2022, while Iraq and Kuwait also reported large increases and the UAE is free of OPEC quotas. Futures fell nearly 25% in November so far despite ongoing tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.
Ample crude supply and falling physical cargo prices reduce energy costs for feed producers, easing pressure on fuel, fertilizer and freight costs that feed into grain and meal prices.
After 338 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -5.2% to +1.9%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.