
Oil futures are struggling to rise much above $40 a barrel as new coronavirus case spikes depress fuel demand through renewed local lockdowns, delayed returns to work and canceled travel. Crude production is rising at the same time.
Traders are awaiting cheaper Saudi crude.
Weaker crude demand combined with rising output points to a return to surplus, which keeps energy prices soft and limits the cost pressure on feed ingredients tied to fuel and freight.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.