China's breeding sow inventory fell to 36.02 million head at the end of Q3, down 10.7% year on year and below the 37.5 million regulatory baseline for the first time since the capacity controls began. October newborn piglet numbers also turned negative year on year.
Shrinking sow herds and falling piglet numbers point to lower hog supply in about six months, which would eventually support hog prices and increase demand for feed ingredients.
After 100 past bullish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.