Wheat, Hogs, Soybeans: India Export Ban, Fund Shorts | Nov 13, 2026
· 8:39 · AI-generated voice presenting Feedsoft research
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Wheat's squeeze is about exporters who can't or won't ship, India's ban, Russia's stalled ports and a smaller Australian crop, while funds remain short soft red wheat; ample global stocks are the counterweight.
STORIES IN THIS EPISODE
- 1.8 million tonnes of wheat stranded in ports due to India's sudden export ban
- Russia's seaborne grain exports tumble in October
- USDA WASDE report
- Soybeans Reach Two-Week Peak as U.S. Supply Forecasts Tighten
- Russia oil output rises as IEA sees global surplus
- Strong protein demand is helping boost milk production numbers as the industry continues to expand
- The tough calls NSW growers made ahead of this year's harvest
- NSW farmers confront challenging harvest with production forecast down by a third
- Plenty of wheat, expensive ships and expensive fertiliser: the IGC's read on world grain
- Soybeans react in Chicago and Brazil after USDA projects U.S. crop and stocks below expectations
- Grain markets see strength from USDA report. Can they hold on?
- Screwworm Quarantine: Mitchell County Case Puts Southwest Fisher County in Infested Zone 30
- 94% in drought, 76% of pastures poor: a record-warm August to October leaves America's Mid-South hauling water to cattle — Inside Desk
- Fishmeal price rose 35% since July, and the EU paid 28.7% more for its imports
- Dollar Firms with Weaker Stocks and Higher T-Note Yields
TRANSCRIPT
Cold open · 0:00
India banned wheat exports on a Saturday, days after talking up record shipments, and traders say 1.8 million tonnes of wheat is now stuck at port. Russia's southern grain ports, meanwhile, are close to a standstill. Hard red winter wheat rose 2.4% today, yet money managers are still short soft red wheat, sitting at the 20th percentile of their history. So who is losing supply, and is that short position exposed?
Intro · 0:34
Hello, and welcome to Feedsoft Market Signals, your daily read on agricultural and commodity markets, brought to you by Feedsoft dot A-I. I'm your AI host, and it's Friday, November thirteenth. Let's see what moved today.
The close · 0:55
Supply headlines likely moved the grains today, while positioning seems to have moved hogs. Lean hogs jumped 11.5%, and with funds holding a record short, a squeeze could be part of the story. Hard red winter wheat led the wheat markets, likely helped by trouble among the big exporters. Soybeans hit their highest since late October after USDA trimmed stocks. Brent is up 3 sessions in a row, and diesel is still up 75% on the year. The IEA sees crude in surplus but diesel supply constrained, which likely keeps farm fuel bills heavy. Class III milk fell 2.3%, with US production projected at its highest in decades. And a follow-up on our last river question: the St. Louis barge rate did not firm. It fell 6.5% on the week to $29.69/mt. The Missouri navigation cutback hasn't shown up in that number yet.
Wheat's exporters step back at once · 1:54
Start with the whiplash in India. Only days earlier, the government said it was aiming for record wheat shipments of 10 million tonnes. A heatwave had already cut output and pushed domestic prices to records, and then came the ban. Traders told Reuters that 1.8 million tonnes of wheat is stranded at ports. Exporters whose cargoes aren't covered by letters of credit face losses. Russia has its own problem. Its seaborne grain exports more than halved in October from a year earlier. Drone attacks brought shipments through southern ports to a near-standstill. Baltic, Arctic and Caspian terminals are picking up some of the slack, but not enough. Then there's Australia, where the winter crop is forecast sharply smaller after a dry season. New South Wales growers made tough calls, and some skipped the season entirely. Prices moved. Hard red winter wheat settled at $6.37/bu, up 2.4%. Even so, managed money is net short 87,126 contracts in soft red wheat. If the supply news keeps coming, that position could leave room for short covering. That's a condition to watch, not a forecast, and there's a fair counterargument. The International Grains Council forecasts world wheat output for the new season down 3% from last year's record. It expects world wheat trade to shrink, and its export price index sits well below its peak. Ample global stocks could cap how far this rally runs. Where does the US fit? US wheat export commitments stand at 60% of USDA's forecast, against an average of 69% by this point in past seasons. The thing to watch is whether buyers shut out of India and the Black Sea could turn to American wheat. So wheat's problem likely isn't the size of the world crop, but whether exporters can ship it, and the funds are positioned the other way.