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The IEA reported Russian crude output rose 210,000 barrels per day to 8.73 million in October. Global supply reached 105.4 million barrels per day, pushing the market into surplus for the first time since the Iran war began, while diesel supply stayed constrained by attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
A return to crude surplus is bearish for crude prices, but tight diesel supply keeps distillate costs elevated for feed transport and farm operations. The split between crude and diesel markets matters for fuel cost planning.
cnbc.comHugh LeaskNov 13, 2026After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
