OPEC's monthly outlook kept 2023 global oil demand unchanged at 101.9 million bpd, raising its China demand forecast while cutting its estimate of required OPEC crude. The report noted Russian liquids output is falling less than previously expected.
A lower call on OPEC crude signals a looser balance and more supply from outside the group, which weighs on crude prices and the energy costs tied to feed.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.