
The International Energy Agency said US oil output is set for explosive growth this year as prices rally. Goldman Sachs and OPEC have also warned of a looming production surge reminiscent of the early shale boom.
Expected US supply growth would add crude and cap price rallies, which weighs on energy costs over time and reduces the energy-driven support for biofuel and feed input prices.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.