
OPEC output rose by 240,000 barrels per day last month to 27.35 million bpd, the highest since December 2023, according to a Bloomberg survey. Gains came from Iraq after a fire at its biggest field, Venezuela ahead of US restrictions, and the UAE.
Higher OPEC supply adds to a market already facing ample barrels, which is bearish for crude. Lower energy prices can ease costs for feed producers but also weaken biofuel demand.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.