
Oil rose about 1% from the previous session’s two-month lows after Iran’s security chief said the country would not allow enriched nuclear material to leave. Prices also drew support from uncertainty over diplomacy and continued attacks on Gulf shipping, including a reported tanker strike off Oman.
Reduced hopes for an imminent diplomatic resolution and ongoing shipping threats sustain a risk premium in crude, which can increase feed-production and freight costs.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.