Soybean futures in Chicago recovered during the week after the USDA's November report projected the 2026/27 U.S. soybean crop at 4.574 billion bushels, up from 4.562 billion previously. The report set ending stocks at 300 million bushels, below October's 315 million and below the market's expectation of 336 million.
The USDA also cut global 2026/27 soybean ending stocks to 123.5 million tonnes, under analyst forecasts.
A tighter U.S. and global soybean balance supports soybean and soymeal prices, raising costs for feed buyers. The Brazilian market is reacting with higher prices and faster business, which signals export competition to come.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.