
Arkansas, Louisiana and Mississippi recorded their warmest August to October periods on record, with 94% of the region in moderate to exceptional drought. The USDA rates 76% of pastures in poor to very poor condition, and ranchers are feeding hay daily and hauling water.
Poor pasture and drought push ranchers to buy hay and supplemental feed earlier and in larger volumes, which supports hay and feed prices in the region. Herd stress may also prompt early cattle sales, adding supply pressure on cattle prices.
After 29 past bearish weather events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.5% to +2.6%), and +2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.