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NOAA says the current El Niño is strengthening and is likely to stay strong to very strong through early 2027. It puts the chance of a historic event, exceeding all El Niños since 1950, at about 60% for the October-December and November-January periods.
A strong El Niño typically brings drought to Southeast Asia, Australia and parts of South America, which can cut palm oil and grain output and reduce Peruvian anchovy catches, supporting fishmeal and palm oil prices.
financialexpress.comSheenu SharmaNov 14, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
