
New South Wales grain growers are harvesting a drought-affected crop with high fuel and fertiliser costs. Australia's winter crop is forecast to fall by about a third, though NSW remains on track to be the second-largest producing state.
Some growers planted late or not at all, while others got yields above expectations and strong chickpea prices.
A roughly one-third fall in Australian winter crop output tightens exportable wheat and barley supply, which supports global feed grain prices. Higher diesel and fertiliser costs also raise the cost of production.
After 1,076 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.