
USDA lowered its 2026/27 world rice export forecast by 1.12 million tonnes to 60.23 million tonnes in its November WASDE report. India's export forecast fell by 1 million tonnes to 23 million tonnes, while world ending stocks were raised to 199.82 million tonnes.
A smaller projected Indian export volume tightens the available supply for importers, though higher ending stocks mean not all of that supply is unavailable. Price impact depends on whether importers can access the stocks held by India and China.
After 52 past neutral report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.4%), and -1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.