
Conab reported Brazil's soybean planting reached 66% of projected area in the first week of November, with 49.3 million hectares forecast and output of 181.6 million tonnes. Conab flagged irregular rainfall, high temperatures and El Niño as risks, and cut its corn export forecast for 2025-26 to 40.9 million tonnes.
Weather risk to Brazil's soybean yield supports prices modestly, while the lower Conab corn export forecast signals weaker Brazilian competition for corn sales.
After 1,085 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.